The schedule makers did the Browns no favors when you put it under the microscope.
As the Cleveland Browns are set to embark on a full QB competition, they now know who they’ll be playing to start the year. The NFL has released the schedule for the league’s 17-week, 2025 season and there are challenges for the team.
The first four games are absolutely brutal for the Browns as they look to establish a winning culture.
The NFL schedule makers have trended toward prioritizing ratings over fairness in recent years. As more primetime games go to the highest bidding streaming services, the league has accepted the trade-off.
For Cleveland, the expectations aren’t so high this year, and as a result will have zero primetime games. It’s typically these games that put teams in a bind on the future schedule.
Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis has done solid work over the past few years in analyzing data that he calls rest edge. Last year, the Ravens had the biggest advantage in the league with +19, while the 49ers had the biggest disadvantage with -21 across the entirety of the schedule.
Rest edge has become a very real thing to take into consideration across the league. It’s become more common for teams to play three games in ten days or even four games over a seventeen-day span.
What is a rest edge?
A rest edge in the NFL is the number of extra or fewer days a team has to rest and get ready for their game with their opponent.
An example of rest edge: if the Baltimore Ravens have a full 7-day bye week ahead of their game vs the Browns, and the Browns play on Monday Night Football, on a short week, the Ravens have a rest advantage of +8 days prior to their game vs the Browns. Conversely, the Browns would have a rest deficit of -8 days.
Let’s see how the schedule lines up for the Browns in regard to this season. The Browns have a total of five games where a team has an edge, but also two games that should be factored in.
Week 3- Green Bay (+3) @ Cleveland (-3)
The Packers will play on Thursday night in Week 2, giving them three extra days of rest and preparation.
Week 4- Cleveland (+1) @ Detroit (-1)
The Lions will be playing on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football in Week 3.
Week 5- Minnesota @ Cleveland (London)
While both teams technically have the same amount of time, the international trip puts the Browns at a disadvantage because Minnesota will be playing in Europe in back-to-back weeks. The only other two times this scenario has happened have led to two blowout wins for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Week 6- Cleveland (-7) @ Pittsburgh (+7)
Not only do the Browns have to make the return trip, but the Steelers will be fresh off a bye from their game in Ireland in Week 4.
Week 10- Cleveland @ New York Jets
Surely, the Browns should have an advantage here, coming off a bye, right? Nope, because the Jets were also given a bye in Week 9. Many teams gain a strong advantage from their bye week, but the schedule makers just took that from both teams in this case.
Week 12- Cleveland (+1) @ Las Vegas (-1)
The Browns will catch the Raiders on a short week after they played on Monday night.
Week 13- San Francisco (-1) @ Cleveland (+1)
Again, the Browns have a slight edge over the 49ers, who played on MNF.
For the season, the Browns end up with a (-7) for rest edge, which puts them at a deficit overall. I haven’t had the time to examine all teams this year, but that number would have put Cleveland in the bottom third of the league based on last year’s calculations.
This, combined with the tough start to the year, will make this season a difficult one. Time will tell if the Browns can overcome this by getting better-than-expected play from one of their QBs.
What do you think about this deep dive into the schedule? Does it bring more concern than you already had? Let us know in the comments below.