While there were a variety of discussions about whether QB Baker Mayfield was a good enough quarterback, one seemed to focus on how Kevin Stefanski’s Cleveland Browns offense used him. Many believe that the play-action heavy passing attack, especially with a great running game, allows a quarterback to succeed beyond his talents.
The use of rollouts and boot action also limits the amount of field a quarterback has to read which should make their life easier.
The same arguments have been used against quarterbacks who play in screen-heavy offenses where they can put up big numbers mostly due to yards after catch scenarios.
With that in mind, stripping away play-action and screen plays from the data can help give a better perspective on a quarterback’s production. Since 2019, new Browns QB Deshaun Watson has been among the elite quarterbacks in these kinds of pure dropback passes:
The stat I brought up when discussing Dak.
QBs with the highest EPA/dropback without play action/screens (AKA the real stuff) since 2019:
Mahomes: .22
Brees: .18
Rodgers: .17
Watson: .17
Dak: .17
Jackson: .14
Herbert: .14
Burrow: .14
Stafford: .11
Rivers: .11
Cousins: .11 https://t.co/LRjwsLkYkm— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) July 28, 2022
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While EPA (expected points added), is a complex mathematical formula, using it as a data point reference can be useful. As seen above, Watson was tied for the third best performance in pure dropback situations since 2019. Patrick Mahomes stands alone while the now-retired Drew Brees was slightly better.
It is interesting to see Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott with the same results as Watson. Rodgers is always considered near the top of the league’s signal-callers while Prescott is rarely, if ever, in that conversation.
In Stefanski’s offense, Watson could benefit from the strong offensive line, run game, play action scheme and screen game but his history says he can produce at a high level simply by dropping back to pass.
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