It may have taken six weeks, but the Browns’ offense finally looked competent.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before. The Patriots, led by their up-and-coming elite QB, tough run defense and star cornerback, are the talk of the NFL. While obviously not as good as the Brady-led dynasty of the 2000s, this Patriots squad is young, talented, and primed to make a push for the playoffs.
So far this season, New England has favored the run more than most teams in the league, but over the past three games, they’ve been much more balanced, achieving a 50/50 run/pass ratio. While understandably trying to establish the run game, they’re not having much success. The tandem of Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson hasn’t provided much spark as they’ve combined for 398 yards and three touchdowns on 112 carries while averaging 3.4 yards per carry. To put that in perspective, Quinshon Judkins by himself has 467 yards and five touchdowns on 109 carries, all while having a 4.3 YPC average. With QB Drake Maye having such a stellar season so far, there hasn’t been an immediate need for production in the run game.
Whoever said that quarterbacks suffer from “sophomore slumps” didn’t give the memo to Drake Maye. The former North Carolina Tar Heel has been playing at an MVP level so far this season. He’s thrown for 1,744 yards and twelve touchdowns to only two interceptions. He is also the fourth-highest graded quarterback according to Pro Football Focus at 87.3. As impressive as he’s been so far, he’s even better when heavily pressured. Maye leads the league in terms of competition percentage (75.5) and passer rating (137.1) when blitzed. The best way to counteract Maye’s effectiveness against the blitz is very simple: don’t blitz. Getting constant pressure with the front four could impact Maye’s ability to connect with WRs Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte. Luckily for Cleveland, they have a generational pass rusher in Myles Garrett, so getting to the quarterback consistently shouldn’t be too much of a problem.
Last week against Miami, Cleveland ran roughshod for 104 rushing yards and three touchdowns. I expect things won’t be that easy against New England’s run defense. The Dolphins have arguably the worst run defense in the league, while the Patriots have one of the best. Led by stalwart defenders Christian Baramore and Milton Williams, the Patriots’ defense has yet to allow a 50-yard rusher and they’ve only given up two rushing touchdowns on the season so far. The interior blockers will definitely need to bring their A-game on Sunday in order to break this trend.
Strengths:
- Elite Run Defense
- MVP-Caliber QB
Weaknesses:
- Rushing Attack Well Below Average
- 3rd Most Penalized Team
- Can’t Generate Consistent Pass Rush
Key Matchup:
- Myles Garrett Vs. Will Campbell
For the Browns, there’s a stark difference between the Dolphins and the Patriots. Quinshon Judkins was able to run effectively against Miami’s bottom-ranked rush defense. Seeing as how New England is arguably the best at stuffing the run, I don’t see a lot of opportunities for Judkins.
In order for Cleveland to leave Foxboro with a win, two things need to happen: the Defense needs to generate pressure without blitzing (very likely to happen), and QB Dillon Gabriel has to be able to make a significant amount of plays with his arm (very unlikely to happen). The Patriots come in as the surprise leaders in the AFC East and one of the hottest teams in the league. There’s definitely a confidence boost for Cleveland, coming off a decisive 31-6 win last week against Miami, but I don’t think there’s enough offensive talent to pick up a win here.
Score Prediction:
- CLE- 16
- NE- 27
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