But hey, at least I’m not predicting a loss to Michigan!
As preseason camp begins this week, Land-Grant Holy Land is diving into its final theme every week of the off-season. This week is all about making predictions that may or may not be reasonable, in fact, some might say they are bold. You can catch up on all of the Theme Week content here and all of our ”Bold Predictions” articles here.
With so much freak athleticism (looking at you, Jeremiah Smith) and the ability to pick up where last year’s team left off, I do believe the Buckeyes will win a second consecutive national title.
I suppose that could be considered a bold prediction in and of itself. Since the Associated Press began naming a national champion in 1936, just 14 teams have won back-to-back titles. Only Georgia has accomplished the feat since the College Football Playoff era began in 2014.
But while each year brings with it new growing pains and adjustments, Ohio State still heads into the upcoming season with a high-powered offense, weapons from each angle, a tough and steady defense, and coaches with ample experience in marquee games.
It might be bold to assume they’ll win the title again, but it’s not an impossibility, nor is it where my bold prediction starts and stops, because I believe the Buckeyes will win these consecutive national titles without winning the Big Ten Championship.
If you need a refresher on last season, when Michigan handed the Buckeyes their second loss of the season, it threw a wrench into Ohio State’s plans in more ways than one. Undefeated Oregon had already locked in their spot in the Big Ten Championship, but the second spot — the one that Ohio State would have secured with a win over the Wolverines, instead went to an 11-1 Penn State team, which won the tiebreaker against Indiana.
Oregon went on to win the Big Ten title, 45-37, setting up its rematch with Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, which the Buckeyes, of course, won en route to the National Championship.
This season, I expect we’re going to see the same two teams in the Big Ten Championship, with Ohio State still ultimately going on to the title.
Here’s how: For Oregon, the road to the Big Ten Championship is a fairly easy one, given both the talent on their team and their schedule. The way I see it, they have two major hurdles to clear in their schedule: Penn State on the road on Sept. 27 and USC at home on Nov. 22.
On the Nittany Lions’ side, in addition to that home game against Oregon, they play Ohio State on the road Nov. 1 and Indiana at home on Nov. 8.
It’s college football, and upsets happen, so this bold prediction, which hinges on routine games playing out fairly predictably, could blow up quickly if someone comes out of left field this season the way Indiana did last year, for example. We’re working under the assumption that the aforementioned games are where this prediction lives and dies.
With their schedule this year, I just don’t see Oregon losing a regular-season game, setting them up for a second consecutive undefeated regular season and a trip to the Big Ten Championship.
If Oregon goes undefeated, that means Penn State loses at home to the Ducks. So, how do they get back into the mix in this scenario?
On the road in Columbus. Penn State is long overdue for a win over the Buckeyes, and with former Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles jumping ship after the championship to take the same role with the Nits, this could very well be their time to shine. If anyone is going to be able to shut down the Buckeyes’ high-octane offense, it’s Knowles.
I do think, unfortunately for Ohio State, that this is going to be the best Penn State team in years (I know, I know. People say this every year). I also think, given the potential of the Penn State team, if head coach James Franklin doesn’t have something to show for the talent at the end of this season, he very well might be out of a job. Personally, I hope he stays forever, since I believe he’s the Nits’ Achilles heel, and he does seem to have nine lives, but at some point, he needs to start delivering some marquee wins. With Knowles on his sideline instead of ours this season, he might just be able to pull it off.
Realistically, Knowles hasn’t yet had the chance to recruit his own defense, so there will be a settling-in period for him, and even with his knowledge, the Buckeyes’ offense will be tough to stop.
But if they’re ever going to make it happen, this is the year.
That would set Penn State up with just the one loss to Oregon.
The Buckeyes, on their end, have two tough conference games and a couple of sticky ones. Their season opener against Texas, while important down the road for ranking and seeding, has no bearing on the Big Ten Championship, as only conference play is factored in (though I do think the Buckeyes will win that). OSU has Illinois and Wisconsin on the road, both games they should win easily, but ones that could trip them up if they’re caught sleeping, plus Penn State at home and Michigan in Ann Arbor.
I have to assume we will beat Michigan for the sake of my mental health (and if we don’t, I’ll be first in line to start demanding a new head coach). So, assuming OSU takes both sticky games and the Michigan game, their hypothetical loss to Penn State would be the only one factored into the Big Ten Championship.
A one-loss OSU loses the tiebreaker to a one-loss Penn State if Penn State has the head-to-head advantage, setting up an Oregon and Penn State Big Ten Championship rematch.
But just like it didn’t keep the Buckeyes down last season (and in many ways, the loss to Michigan actually seemed to light a fire under them), I believe Ohio State would be able to find a way to overcome and win the national title, whether or not they make an appearance in Indianapolis in December.