Ohio State will watch as multiple title contenders try to reinforce their College Football Playoff cases with a conference championship. The Buckeyes need a lot to go their way to receive one of four postseason spots.
Joel Klatt acknowledged that Ohio State lost what was essentially an “elimination game” to Michigan last Saturday, but he detailed Ohio State’s “very small” path to the College Football Playoff.
“They need the following three teams to lose: Alabama, Florida State, Texas. If those three teams lose? I think Ohio State goes if those three teams lose,” Klatt said on his show.
The broadcaster called this scenario the “chaos” Ohio State needs to return to the CFP.
“I didn’t think there was a great chance for Ohio State, I think this is the chaos that they would need.”@JoelKlatt shares his CFP picks if Georgia and Michigan win + all the underdogs winning
Listen here: https://t.co/EIIEEiK2ZD pic.twitter.com/q86Z9gPlks
— The Joel Klatt Show: A CFB Pod (@JoelKlattShow) November 29, 2023
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Klatt believes the Buckeyes have a solid chance if Georgia, Louisville, and Oklahoma State all win. However, Ohio State’s odds diminish even if two of those events happen.
ESPN’s CFP Predictor concurs. Assuming Michigan defeats Iowa, the algorithm gives Ohio State an 83 or 84 percent chance (depending on the Pac-12 winner) to make the Playoff if the Crimson Tide, Seminoles, and Longhorns lose. Otherwise, the Buckeyes would at best have a 14 percent chance if only Alabama and Texas lost.
Unfortunately for Ohio State, this scenario remains a longshot. The “three-team parlay” Klatt described could be wagered at +1742 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. That equates to a 5.4 percent implied probability.
Georgia is favored to remain undefeated with its third straight SEC title, and Florida State is only a narrow favorite without injured quarterback Jordan Travis. Yet Texas has a 14.5-point edge to win the Big 12 title.
Instead of playing Iowa for the Big Ten championship, the 11-1 Buckeyes are hoping for a miracle. Yet Klatt pointed out that top-five teams are 31-1 at home this season, so he won’t rule out Ohio State after narrowly falling short to undefeated Michigan at Ann Arbor.
“The way that they played and that game being such a great game? They’ll be alright,” Klatt continued. “They still have the Notre Dame win. They still have a very good resume.”