After putting up lofty numbers in his first collegiate season, multiple factors may keep Smith from reaching the same statistical heights as a sophomore.
From now until preseason camp starts in August, Land-Grant Holy Land will be writing articles around a different theme every week. This week is all about our Unreasonable Expectations. You can catch up on all of the Theme Week content here and all of our Unreasonable Expectations here.
Wide receiver Jeremiah Smith had a freshman season like no other in Ohio State football history. The native of Miami Gardens, Florida rewrote the school’s freshman receiving record book, including the most receptions, touchdowns, and yards on the way to helping the Buckeyes win a national championship.
However, even with a year of college football under his belt, there are multiple factors at play that make it unreasonable to expect Smith to reach those same numbers in his second season. He’s got the talent to do so, but there are things working against him.
It may seem ridiculous to suggest this, but Smith could play better and be more savvy in his second season and still not see an increase in production in his second year. To put things into perspective, however, it’s important to note where Smith is coming from to see where he might go.
In his first year, Smith played in 16 games, racking up 76 receptions for 1,315 yards and 15 touchdowns. He averaged 82.2 receiving yards per game and 17.3 yards per catch. His 76 receptions were the fifth most in a single campaign in OSU history, with his yardage total ranking fourth all-time, and his touchdowns mark was second only to Terry Glenn’s 17 in 1995, although he played a few more games. He also ran the ball six times for 47 yards and a touchdown.
The mythical “sophomore slump” is probably the least likely thing to hold him back and the most difficult factor to pin down. Offensive players’ numbers dip in their second season for a number of reasons, including teams adjusting and game-planning ways to stop them, staying at the same level while others move forward, or more intangibles, such as the quality of the team around them.
Smith will be playing with a new starting quarterback, regardless of who wins the job coming out of camp. That quarterback will have far less game experience than Will Howard had entering 2024. Additionally, the Buckeyes will not have veteran Emeka Egbuka to take some of the attention off of Smith.
There is a ton of talent in the receiver group, to be sure, but opposing teams won’t necessarily fear Carnell Tate or Brandon Inniss to the same extent. Smith will get the opposing team’s best cover man, and safety help as often as possible.
Aside from the extra attention Smith will get from defenses in 2025, it’s possible Ryan Day and Brian Hartline will be a bit less aggressive with Julian Sayin or Lincoln Kienholz at quarterback. This could be especially true if the Buckeyes run the ball well. Those new quarterbacks might also be more willing to check down than Howard was in his year as Ohio State’s starter.
We’ll just have to wait and see.
Smith could prove this column completely wrong and destroy his 2024 numbers in 2025. That’s the kind of talent he has. That doesn’t make it reasonable to expect it to happen.