It’s not you, Carlos. It’s us.
It is now clear that the Guardians should not have signed Carlos Santana, and they should attempt to trade him as soon as possible.
I want to begin this article by making clear that this article is not an attack on Carlos Santana who is one of my all-time favorite Cleveland baseball players. It’s also not even an attack on his play; as a 39 year-old first baseman he has a 108 wRC+, 4 Outs Above Average and 3 Defensive Runs Saved. This is simply me facing the reality of what the Guardians are trying to do as a franchise.
When the Guardians traded Josh Naylor, they had an immediate hole at first base/DH. They had Kyle Manzardo and then HOPEFULLY David Fry in June as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. So, the Guardians immediately signed old friend Carlos Santana, but this seemed a little strange at the time. Santana has hit LHP better for a long time now, and Josh Naylor was one the team’s few threats vs. RHP. (So, of course, Santana has a 116 wRC+ vs RHP and 88 wRC+ vs LHP). Santana was clearly not someone you’d want batting cleanup; rather, he’s a good role player who could replace Manzardo defensively and start against LHP when needed. At the very least, however, the signing of veterans Santana, and Shane Bieber, and, then, Paul Sewald, seemed to indicate that the team felt they were putting together a team planning to make a playoff run.
But, then, that was it. The Guardians didn’t make a big trade to acquire a proven middle of the order hitter to replace Naylor’s offensive production in either right field or center field, neither did they, of course, sign someone like Teoscar Hernandez in free agency to fill one of those roles. They did trade for old friend Nolan Jones from the Rockies, banking on a bounceback from him after a rough 2024. And, to be honest, I felt optimistic about this plan because I believed we would see some offensive progression from Bo Naylor, Manzardo, Rocchio, and Jones and that Jhonkensy Noel would be able to hit enough occasional bombs to help compensate for his atrocious strikeout numbers. If the Guardians front office shared my optimism, they were dead wrong.
It is very clear that if the Guardians ever make significant moves, it’s going to be midseason while they have a clear shot to win the division and make a run. They aren’t going to be players for Kyle Tucker in free agency this offseason; I don’t even believe they’ll be a major contender to land Cedric Mullins in a rental deadline deal this season given their place in the standing and his acquisition costs as a player who can be in centerfield. Given that the current offense is producing a 91 wRC+, the Guardians probably would need to acquire three good hitters, anyway, to boost their offense into a legitimate force for good in terms of trying to pursue a title.
I keep coming back to this simple conclusion – if the Guardians are not going to spend in money or resources to acquire controllable, legitimate middle of the order hitters, they have to develop those hitters. And, if they have to develop those hitters, they cannot block those hitters from everyday playing time by signing veterans on short-term deals. It’s especially important not to block young hitters with players whom your manager is going to give everyday playing time because of their veteran status, which is something all of us could have predicted with Carlos Santana and Stephen Vogt. Because Santana is incredibly consistent at being ready to play, provides a steady floor of solid value, and has developed into a clubhouse/team leader-type as well. But, the Guardians need Kyle Manzardo to develop into a middle-of-the-order hitter for their future, not Carlos Santana. The Guardians need to see what – if anything – is there to hitters like Jhonkensy Noel and CJ Kayfus for their future, not squeeze all they can out of Santana for one final rodeo (again, as much as I love him).
Jose Ramirez has the most plate appearances on the Guardians at 288, and Manzardo is 50 plate appearances short of that (he’s 30 plate appearances short of Santana). Now, Manzardo probably needs another couple days off from Jose to this point so you’re reasonably missing an additional 40 plate appearances of development and evaluation from Manzardo to this point. However, you’re also dealing with whatever harm to Manzardo’s production and development comes from him sitting against LHP almost every time out. If someone knows how to get a quick and easy summary of a player’s minor-league splits, let me know, but to the best of my ability to count on my fingers and toes, Manzardo had an OPS of .770 vs. LHP at High-A and above in his minor league career. Generally speaking, that doesn’t indicate a player who has to be platooned. Maybe Manzardo IS a platoon first-baseman, but, if he is, the team needs to have the evidence to make that conclusion so they can go from there. At this pace, he’s going to miss out on about 100 total major plate-appearances, mostly against LHP, in his age 25 season, making the conclusion about who he is as a hitter, overall, and against lefties even harder for the team to make with any kind of conviction when the year ends.
If the Guardians have to bet on their (poor) hitting development group to put together a winning offense, they can’t block young players with stopgap vets. If the Guardians wanted to sign Pete Alonso to a long-term deal this offseason, zero complaints, no notes. But, if they aren’t going to make a splash like that and they have ready solutions from their developing hitters for holes on the roster, they need to let those players play, everyday, especially if their minor-league platoon splits make it look like they can hold their own in those roles.
The needed adjustments at this point are pretty clear – the Guardians brass needs to be beginning conversations with teams interested in acquiring Santana, even if Cleveland has to cover some salary, to open up more AB’s for Manzardo and likely for Kayfus. They need to inform Vogt and Santana of the need to sit Santana a little more to give Manzardo a chance to play as much as possible. They, further, need to be aggressive in promoting players like Kayfus, Chase DeLauter, Juan Brito (when healthy), and Petey Halpin. They need to take a hard look at what is going on in their coaching of hitters that has resulted in a team 96 wRC+ since opening day of 2019, 21st in baseball, despite a daily role in that lineup for a player in Jose Ramirez who has put up a wRC+ over 130 in that time period (sorry, FanGraphs is down so that is also an estimate). If the Guardians won’t spend, they have to succeed in developing hitters, and they can’t do anything that will harm those hitters’ development.
The biggest takeaway for me so far in this frustrating season that has yet to reach a halfway point is that I will never, ever advocate for short-term veteran signings for the Guardians again, when there are young players ready to take those roles. I’ll still do my share of complaining that they aren’t in on potential Kyle Tucker deals or Teoscar Hernandez signings, but if there isn’t a clear difference maker within the acquisition cost range this team is comfortable with, they need to prioritize development above all else. As hard and frustrating as it is to admit, the only shot the team, Jose Ramirez and Guardians’ fans have at seeing a pennant/World Series title is for Cleveland to successfully develop enough of its hitting prospects to make this lineup a positive force. That hasn’t happened over the past six years, but they can’t be shy about the stratgey now. They need to lean further into the youth movement and give their hitters the best possible chance to succeed by playing them everyday.
(Final note: it’s possible that signing Santana meant something special to Jose. If this is the case, retaining him the rest of the season IS workable and I would support it to reward our franchise star for his loyalty. They simply need to be willing to move Kayfus to the outfield if he earns a promotion, AND to talk to Santana about embracing a more part-time role to prioritize getting Manzardo in an everyday routine, including hitting LHP).