It’s time to make it more likely the team will emerge from the next ten games in good shape
On Friday, the Guardians will embark on a 10 game road trip. What should they do to position themselves to best survive this arduous journey?
The Guardians will face the Reds, the Twins (dunh, dunh, dunh!) and the Tigers (DUNH, DUNH, DUNH!!!!) over the next ten games, and how they accomplish that stretch will take us right up to Memorial Day Weekend, the time when it is generally considered ok to take your first assessment of a major league baseball team. 25-18 is good right now, and a .500 road trip would be 30-23 and which is perfectly fine. Something lesser than that, or to back up a trailing run differential of -14 would be some cause for concern. The Guardians probably need a little help to make it through this stretch at .500 or better, so here are some ideas on that account.
Swap Jhonkensy Noel for Johnathan Rodriguez now, Lane Thomas later
I believe more in Big Christmas than I do Johnny Rockets, but it seems pretty clear that Noel needs the reset button that Brayan Rocchio is getting in Columbus. He’s still only 23 years old. He was given one extra option year – time to use it and see if time in Triple-A can help him rediscover his launch angle. Going from a 37% groundball rate in 2024 to a 53.7% rate in 2025 is the source of most of his issues. His strikeout rate is only 30%, he’s still hitting balls hard when he makes contact and his plate discipline stats have reamined steady. He just can’t lift the ball right now, and it seems like a reasonable idea to see if taking a step back can help.
Meanwhile, I’m sure the team is hoping Lane Thomas starts showing some life in Columbus to make that transition, but it’s been mentioned several times on the radio broadcasts to expect Thomas’s rehab to be a little longer. With that in mind, I think it would make sense to give Johnathan Rodriguez another look for a bit. Rodriguez is still striking out too much (27% in Triple-A) and hitting the ball on the ground too much (54%), but he has cut his swinging strike rate by 6% to 11% overall, increased his zone contact rate by 6% to 88%, and his average exit velo of 91.5 mph would be second among Guardians’ regulars right now. He also has a 10% walk rate, so there’s at least some hope that he could take the occasional base-on-balls that doesn’t seem possible for Noel at the moment. I’m not at all “out” on Big Christmas, just like I’m not out on Rocchio, but in both cases, some time in Triple-A to figure things out makes sense to me.
Swap Zak Kent for Slade Cecconi or Parker Messick
Kent will be moving aside for the new starting pitcher to replace the injured Ben Lively. I don’t think it’s wise to move the only lefty currently providing effective production in the pen to the rotation in Koby Allard, and Jakob Junis is sending up all kinds of red flags right now, so that doesn’t seem wise either. We just saw Doug Nikhazy look remarkably unready for the majors and he hasn’t shown anything at Columbus to belie that assumption. So, the best options currently are either finding a roster spot for Parker Messick or recalling Slade Cecconi.
In 13 innings at Columbus, Cecconi has a 2.40 FIP and a 6.92/1.38 K/BB/9. I assume the Guardians would probably like him to make at least one more start for the Clippers, but desparate times and all. Cecconi is the big piece received in the Josh Naylor trade; he doesn’t have anything left to prove in Triple-A. I think it’s time to bring him up and ease him into an every fifth-day role, at least until Shane Bieber is hopefully healthy and ready to rejoin. They could, alternatively, bring up Messick, moving either Paul Sewald or Juan Brito (if they don’t mind the bump in salary he’d receive) to the 60-day IL to get him on the roster. Or, to be honest, they could DFA Kent and probably get him through waivers. In any case, Messick has a 3.39 FIP in 32 innings in Columbus, a 13.22/4.13 K/BB/9, and a solid distribution of groundballs and fly-balls. He looks like a player who could use his first taste of the big leagues and, as a lefty, the experience would also help him be ready for a future bullpen role there, if needed at some point.
I’d go Cecconi here, but would be happy to see Messick make his debut, also.
Swap Joey Cantillo for Andrew Walters
Cantillo’s results have not been terrible, but with his walk rate approach 5 per 9 and his fastball velocity wildly fluctuating between 89 mph and 96 mph, I think it’s time to give Joey a chance to figure out his relief role in Columbus. I do not think trying to stretch him out is going to help his inconscistencies in velocity, command or delivery. In fact, I think the team should begin to view him as a one-inning reliever, try to figure out why he’s having so much trouble getting left-handed hitters out, and let him do all that as a Clipper.
Meanwhile, Andrew Walters is walking too many guys in Columbus (7.27 per 9) but he’s also striking out 15.58 per 9. With Franco Aleman only at 3.1 innings so far, and Nic Enright with similar numbers in similar innings but half the strikeout rate, I think it’s probably time to give Walters a look topside. I do want to see Aleman brought up during the end of the road trip, preferably for the Detroit series, though, because 18.9/0.00 K/BB/9 rate so far has my eyes popping out of my head. Aleman would probably have to replace Walters, though, so it’s an interesting conundrum unless some reliever is currently nursing something that a little 15-day IL stint could help (Junis, meow?).
Summary
The Guardians need some help to last through these next ten games, and there should be some help available for now and for later, if they’re willing to make some slightly aggressive moves. With how strong the other three contenders in the American League Central have been, the Guardians probably need to move their usual patient timelines up slightly to prioritize not falling behind in a playoff chase before the All-Star break. We’ll see if they feel the same way by the time tomorrow’s opener against the Reds takes place.