The former 1st Round Pick is living up to the hype in Akron
Kahlil Watson was acquired by the Guardians in 2023 when they sent Josh Bell to Miami in the final minutes before the trade deadline. This was only two years after the Marlins selected him 16th overall in the 2021 draft.
Prior to this season, Watson had been a slightly above average hitter at every level he visited while being young for each level. This season he is destroying AA pitching to the tune of a .278/.370/.504 slash line. He has done this while transitioning into a full time outfielder with Akron (15 games in CF and 5 in both RF and LF). On top of the breakout with the bat there is some promise in the outfield with his great speed and arm.
Watson is now 22 years old which is the age that many players are when they get drafted out of College. Watson is a great example of player development being non-linear and a reminder to us all why patience with raw athletes like him is so important.
Photo by Aidan Conrad/Minor League Baseball via Getty Images
Lets dive into what is driving his success:
A massive development for Watson has been his improved contact rates. The hit tool has always been a big red flag, making this the most exciting and important area of improvement for him. His Zone-Contact rate jumped from 76.9% in 2024 to 83.7% this season, bringing him from below to above average. His total whiff% fell from 33.1% down to a much more sustainable 28%. Watson now only strikes out 22% of the time versus the 30% K-rate player he has been for his entire pro career. The reduced K-rate is aided by an improved chase rate which is down from 33.7% to a roughly average 28.7%.
These sorts of improvements are what you dream on with raw talents like him. I was pretty high on Watson going into this season but I would be lying if I said that I saw a leap this big coming.
Equally as impressive as his improved plate approach is the batted ball distribution that he is putting out. Watson is hitting line-drives at an absurd 27% rate, up from 18% last season. For reference, line-drive extraordinaire Luis Arraez has a 27% career LD%. The GB and FB rates are also encouraging, and he continues to avoid pop-ups well for a guy with his tendency to pull the ball. He is still pull-heavy, as he has been his whole career, but this year he is hitting the ball up the middle 10% more.
All of that development paired with his plus raw power has turned him into a 153 wRC+ hitter for the rubber ducks. Among all hitters at the AA level he is ranked 12th in WRC+ (min. 130PA), and among players his age or younger he is 4th. One of the names ahead of him is recently promoted Jac Caglione who barely edged out Watson with a 157 wRC+.
If the upward trend of Kahlil Watson continues then the Guardians will be getting away with a robbery of the Miami Marlins. As the Guardians woes in centerfield continue, we should keep a close eye on Kahlil Watson and how the org decides to progress him through the minor leagues. He is due for a promotion to AAA already and its fair to assume it will be coming soon.
Let me know what you think about Kahlil Watson and any insights you might have!