Trying to figure out the what, the who and the why
Shane Bieber is gone. Steven Kwan is still here. What does it all mean?
The Guardians enter the last 54 games of the season 54-54. Their playoff odds are around 12%, depending on which site you prefer. Many of the typical rumor-trafficking reporters believed they would trade Bieber and Kwan; instead only Bieber, whom the Athletic’s Zack Meisel reports was very unlikely to pick up his 2026 team option, was dealt (along with Paul Sewald, who is not significant to the team’s chances either way). So, the team enters August with a chance to push for a playoff berth and try to put both a disappointing first half and the Luis Ortiz-Emmanuel Clase betting investigation behind them.
Why didn’t the Guardians trade Kwan? What does it mean for the future? How should we view this team?
1. This may be the first sign that the team cares (significantly) about having Jose Ramirez retire a Guardian.
Jose loves playing here and loves the idea of spending his whole career in one spot. We know that from repeated quotes. However, I think it is fair to wonder how the franchise star would respond to a more full-scale rebuild at this point in his career, one that would make it unlikely the team competes until 2027 (if there is a season) at the earliest. Would it be enough for him to ask for a trade?
None of us knows the answer to that question except Jose and the front office. But, we do know that the front office has publicly said they don’t believe the Cleveland market will support a full rebuild. Those same folks surely would have to question the effects of being forced to trade the face of the franchise/future hall of fame, on top of everyone else.
So, did the Guardians lean toward keeping Kwan because they want to keep Jose happy? Is that also why Santana is in no danger of a DFA? If so, I am fine with it. I want the team to win a World Series title most of all, but second-place for me is seeing Jose play his full-career in Cleveland, so my kids can learn to love him as much as I do. If keeping Kwan through his years of control here and letting him walk for a comp pick allows you to build a more competitive team around Ramirez, all the better for Jose and for fans.
2. No one was offering enough to compel the Guardians to move Kwan, and that’s ok.
Don’t get me wrong – Steven Kwan is a valuable player. However, he is a unique roster fit. Typically, you stash a good slugger and subpar fielder in left field. Kwan’s profile is centerfield profile and the Guardians seem very reluctant to play Kwan there. I think the reason is simple: centerfield requires a lot more stops and starts, overall plays, and potential encounters with the wall than the corners. Kwan has a slight frame and doesn’t seem to have the physical stamina to hold up to playing centerfield longterm.
I suspect that’s why the Guardians couldn’t get someone like the Dodgers to give up multiple top 100 prospects to solve one their outfield issue and, thus, compel the Guardians to move on from Kwan. There weren’t many teams with the potential to offer the Guardians great prospects not far from the majors (I’m sure the Padres wanted Kwan, but their system is bare, same for the Phillies after they acquired Duran). Not only are teams extremely reluctant to part with their top prospects, but Kwan is a bit of a unicorn in many ways, so it’s difficult to get someone to pay for his true value.
Additionally, I suspect this is why we haven’t seen the Guardians reach an extension with Kwan. Kwan likely wants to be paid like a 4-5 fWAR a year player, and the Guardians are likely to be emphasizing the risks inherent in his physical and hitting profile. If Kwan wants what a player like that could get in free agency, it wouldn’t surprise me (or disappoint me) to see the Guardians hold on to him through 2027 and then seeing him get less in free agency than what he and his agent expect BECAUSE of his uniqueness. Then, he’ll probably outperform the contract and expectations as he always has.
I still think the wisest move was probably to do a more significant sell-off, but I am glad in this case that what my heart wanted (to hold and try for the playoffs) won over what my head said was best in what the front office decided to do.
3. The Guardians need to be aggressive in getting major league ready prospects some major league reps through the last third of this season.
It will be fun to see the Guardians try for that third wildcard, but, given the slim odds, I hope the team does not eschew development to prioritize riding veteran saavy to a potential playoff berth that isn’t likely.
I don’t expect they will DFA Carlos Santana (perhaps also a nod to Jose?), but Kyle Manzardo needs to get some more reps against left-handed pitching while Santana enters games as a pinch-hitter or defensive replacement.
CJ Kayfus, George Valera (when healthy), Petey Halpin, Parker Messick, and – IF they can get healthy late in the year – Juan Brito and Chase DeLauter need to get major league time if at all possible. Use the IL liberally if veterans get dinged up. Bite the bullet and recognize that Johnathan Rodriguez and Nolan Jones are “not good.” Rodriguez can return to Columbus at any time, and Jones can possibly even be passed through waivers at this point (he’s been that bad). I am not calling for this RIGHT away; I think it makes sense to make a team that’s been through this amount of recent trauma some time and space to recover. But, in a couple weeks, it’s time to make a couple of these moves if at all possible.
Overall, I see the teardown the Twins just did and I am grateful that my favorite team didn’t do that route. It has to be a real sense of relief in the Guardians’ clubhouse to see the team mostly intact for the stretch run – with the outside chance of some help from folks like DeLauter, Brito and John Means – and should be a good chance for Cleveland fans to end the year rooting for a team that manages to just get over .500 and stay in the race. That, and making Jose Ramirez happy, is enough for me to call this a successful deadline.