I skipped a series preview, did anyone notice?
When I was first introduced to the sport of baseball at the age of 11 (my dad wasn’t a baseball guy), I decided to root for the Cleveland Indians and the Chicago Cubs. Within a year, I realized it was the right thing to root for your hometown team (the Browns moved so my affection for the Chicago Bears remained), so I abandoned my Cubs’ fandom. This week, I have the potential to be reminded, yet again, that this was likely a poor decision for my mental health.
The Guardians are 40-42 with a -47 run differential, 25th in MLB with a 88 team wRC+, 11th in Baserunning Runs Above Average at 1.3, somehow sixth in Defense at 6.2, 26th in MLB at 4.37 SIERA, and 12th in bullpen SIERA at 3.67.
The Cubs are 49-35 with a +104 run differential (second-best in MLB), third in MLB with a 115 team wRC+, second in Baserunning Runs Above Average at 7.1, fourth in Defense at 7.2, 19th in MLB at 4.12 SIERA, and 24th in bullpen SIERA at 4.03.
The Guardians are not far behind the Cubs in pitching and defense categories, but the gap in offensive categories is quite significant. With the Guardians 25th in MLB in wRC+ vs LHP at 75, and due to face two exceptional lefties in Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga, I don’t feel positive about this series. But, I am willing to be surprised.
Matchups:
Game One, Tuesday, 8:05PM: Gavin Williams, RHP, 4.54 SIERA vs. Matthew Boyd, LHP, 3.84 SIERA
Game Two, Wednesday, 8:05PM: Tanner Bibee, RHP, 3.99 SIERA vs. Shota Imanaga, LHP, 4.81 SIERA
Game Three, Thursday, 8:05PM: Luis Ortiz, RHP, 3.99 SIERA vs. Cade Horton, RHP. 4.47 SIERA
The Guardians best hitters are Jose Ramirez 142 wRC+, Steven Kwan 122 wRC+, Kyle Manzardo 108 wRC+, and Daniel Schneemann at 100 wRC+. The Cubs are led by Kyle Tucker at 157 wRC+, Michael Busch 145 wRC+, Carson Kelly 134 wRC+, Seiya Suzuki 133 wRC+, Pete Crow-Armstrong 129 wRC+, Ian Happ 108 wRC+, Nico Hoerner 104 wRC+ and Dansby Swanson 101 wRC+.
This would be a great series for at least two of the Lane Thomas, David Fry and Johnathan Rodriguez lefty mashing triumverate to breakout. Otherwise, I am not feeling optimistic. But, hey, when the going gets tough, the tough get going.
Check out Bleed Cubbie Blue, our sister SB Nation site, for more great coverage of the series.