Putting the renewed Guardians’ team to the test
The Guardians, on the outskirts of the AL playoff chase, meet the Mets, firmly in the thick of the NL East and NL Wildcard races, for three games tonight in New York.
The Guardians are 56-55 with a -28 run differential, 25th in team wRC+ at 90, 11th in baserunning runs above average at 2.1, sixth in Defense at 4.4, 22nd in starting pitcher FIP at 4.37, and sixth in reliever FIP at 3.64.
The Mets are 63-49 and +40 run differential, seventh in team wRC+ at 107, eighth in baserunning runs above average at 5.8, 15th in Defense at -7.1, ninth in starting pitcher FIP at 3.97, and ninth in reliever FIP at 3.71.
The Guardians are better at bullpen work and Defense. That’ll be enough, right?
Matchups:
Monday, 7:10PM EDT: Slade Cecconi, RHP 4.62 FIP vs. Sean Manaea, LHP 2.93 FIP
Tuesday, 7:10PM EDT: Logan Allen, LHP 4.48 FIP vs. Clay Holmes, RHP 4.29 FIP
Wednesday, 1:10PM EDT: Gavin Williams, RHP 4.42 FIP vs. David Peterson, LHP 3.33 FIP
The Guardians are led by Jose Ramirez at 146 wRC+, Kyle Manzardo 114 wRC+, Steven Kwan 110 wRC+ and Daniel Schneemann at 103 wRC+.
The Mets are led by Juan Soto at 141 wRC+, Pete Alonso at 139 wRC+, Jeff McNeil 125 wRC+, Brandon Nimmo 120 wRC+, Starling Marte 118 wRC+, Francisco Lindor 114 wRC+, Francisco Alvarez at 113 wRC+ and Ronny Mauricio at 106 wRC+. They also recently added Cedric Mullins who has a 103 wRC+ overall this year.
Folks, the Mets are a very good team. They have NINE hitters who are above average major league hitters (IMAGINE THAT!). They just added Ryan Helsley, Gregory Soto and Tyler Rogers added to the pen, who are very good, and their pen was already very good prior to that. The only matchup, on paper, in which the Guardians would seem to have a fighter’s chance is Tuesday. But, hey, this is why they don’t play the games on paper. Miraculously getting two of three in this series could help propel the Guardians into the wildcard race ahead of a resuming of an easier schedule to follow. Winning one of three would be acceptable. Getting swept would further affirm the team’s deicision to not be buyers at this trade deadline and, instead, to trade Shane Bieber.
I resolve to continue to just enjoy the ride and hope to see Jose mash and our young hitters grow and develop.