We will now play a good team
The Guardians and Phillies will meet for a three-game series starting tonight.
The Guardians are 22-15 with a -14 run differential, 13th in wRC+ at 100 wRC+, 21st in Baserunning Runs Above Average at -0.6, tenth in Defense at -0.9, 29th in starting pitcher SIERA at 4.70, ninth in bullpen SIERA at 3.42.
The Phillies are 22-15 with a +20 run differential, ninth in wRC+ at 109 wRC+, 14th in Baserunning Runs Above Average at 0.8, 26th in Defense at -13.6, first in starting pitcher SIERA at 3.28, seventh in bullpen SIERA at 3.38.
These teams have the same records but the Phillies have much better underlying metrics. The Guardians are much better at defense, that’s it. This series is going to be a real test to see if Guardians’ pitchers who have struggled – Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Luis Ortiz – can put it all together against a good lineup. If not… it’ll be a long weekend. I’d recommend, looking at the Phillies’ defensive numbers, putting the ball in play as often as possible.
Matchups:
Game One, Friday, 7:10PM EDT – Aaron Nola, RHP, 3.39 SIERA vs. Gavin Williams, RHP, 4.25 SIERA
Game Two, Saturday, 6:10PM EDT – Ranger Suarez, LHP, 3.14 SIERA vs. Tanner Bibee, RHP, 4.73 SIERA
Game Three, Sunday, 7:10PM EDT – Zach Wheeler, RHP, 2.41 SIERA vs. Luis Ortiz, RHP, 4.16 SIERA
The Phillies are led by Kyle Schwarber 169 wRC+, Edmund Sosa 133 wRC+, Trea Turner 122 wRC+, Bryce Harper 117 wRC+, Nick Castellanos 113 wRC+, Max Kepler 113 wRC+, Bryson Scott 112 wRC+, and Johan Rojas 106 wRC+. The Guardians are led by Daniel Schneemann 167 wRC+, Steven Kwan 148 wRC+, Gabriel Arias 125 wRC+, Kyle Manzardo 123 wRC+, Jose Ramirez 116 wRC+, Austin Hedges 104 wRC+ and Angel Martinez 102 wRC+. However, the more recent versions of Bo Naylor at 99 wRC+, Carlos Santana at 96 wRC+ and Nolan Jones at 72 wRC+ are gonna have to show up for this to work, I’d guess.
Should be a beautiful few days for spring baseball in Cleveland – let’s hope the Guardians show up ready to play it at their best because this is a good Phillies team on a hot streak.
GLOSSARY
wRC+ – Weighted Runs Created Plus – A measure of determining a player’s run production value while controlling for park effects. 100 is league average.
Baserunning Runs Above Average – A metric including stolen base value, double-play avoidance, and taking extra bases to determine how many runs above average a team is on the basepaths
Defense – This stat gives you how many runs above average a team’s defenders save their team, adjusted for positional value (i.e. a catcher has far more defensive value for a team than a first baseman).
SIERA – A metric to determine a pitcher’s true ERA based on strikeout rate, walk rate, and quality of batted-balls given up. This number is similar to ERA (3 and under is excellent) in determining player performance.