A new model for deploying pitchers — as efficient, strategic, and overdue as the torpedo bat.
The Twilight League
— by Mario Crescibene
Imagine, if you will… a league where everything you thought you once knew about pitching has been flipped upside down. A league where starters don’t open the game — they wait in the shadows, biding their time. A league where aces are not wasted on the early innings, but deployed in moments of maximum impact.
Here, effectiveness is amplified. Injuries are reduced. And the outcome of each game is dictated not by outdated tradition… but by truth.
This is…
Baby Boomer Baseball: Tradition Is Not Strategy
In the world we’ve all come to know, the rules of pitching have been forged not from reason, but from ritual.
In this outdated style of baseball, starters are expected to go six maybe seven innings. Toxic goals that were created by Baby Boomer egos, such as pitching a complete game, have been staples in what was thought to define elite pitching. That is the way it has always been.
But in the current iteration of baseball, the reality is that teams now have two pitching staffs: the healthy… and the injured. Torn ligaments and Tommy John surgeries are the norm. And each year, a new generation of arms is sacrificed on the altar of tradition.
Why? Because somewhere along the way, we confused endurance for excellence. We taught our pitchers to chase velocity and spin-rate resulting in a rash of injuries. But in the Twilight League, those rules are seen for what they are: toxic tradition masquerading as strategy.
In The Twilight League, the team’s ace does not begin the game. Instead, he waits. He watches. Biding his time in the shadows of the bullpen for his moment to impact the game. Because the game is not won in the first innings. No, the game is shaped in the third and fourth innings, seized in the sixth, and decided by those who understand that not all innings are created equal.
Here, we believe in something radical. Something true:
That effectiveness is not measured in how long you last—but in when you arrive.
And in the sections that follow, we will use straightforward sabermetrics and simple math to show that this isn’t just fantasy—it’s the future.
The Pitching Equivalent of the Torpedo Bat: Re-balancing Force
For over a century, the baseball bat of our fathers has remained virtually unchanged: a thick barrel, a narrow handle, and a philosophy that prized what was familiar over true optimization. But this season, a new design emerged. A radical experiment based on physics and purpose:
The torpedo bat.
Engineered with a re-balanced weight distribution, the torpedo bat narrowed its barrel’s end while widening its core. It didn’t aim to hit harder—it aimed to hit smarter, transforming brute swings into precise impact by concentrating mass where it mattered most.
This shift was not cosmetic. It was strategic. And it forced the league to reckon with a simple truth:
Power is not about how much force you create, but where you apply it.
In the Twilight League, we apply that same concept to the pitching staff.
We don’t waste energy on the early, low-leverage innings. We don’t ask our best arms to open games when the outcome is still lost in uncertainty. Like the torpedo bat, we redistribute the weight of our pitching power to the high-leverage innings.
In the old world, we measured greatness by innings pitched. In the Twilight League, we measure it by impact.
And impact, as we’re about to show, is not abstract. It’s statistically quantifiable.
The Traditional Model
In the world as we know it, starters pitch once every five games. Let’s take the standard template: a pitcher throws 6 innings per start, and makes 33 starts on average over the course of a 162-game season.
That gives us:
• 6 innings × 33 starts = 198 innings per season
• Divided across 26 weeks: ≈ 7.62 innings per week on average
A heavy load—even for a team’s ace. This routine has carried generations of rotations over the years… that is…when everything breaks right. But more often than not, in modern-day baseball it’s the pitchers who break first.
Torn ligaments, inflamed shoulders, and the all-too-familiar Tommy John surgery echo through the clubhouse. Starters are overextended early in games when leverage is low—and are too often burned out by the time leverage increases later in the game.
In the Twilight League, things are done differently.
The Twilight Model
In the Twilight League, the best pitchers like Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Shane Bieber don’t start the game. Instead, an opener takes the first two to three innings, navigating the early fog of uncertainty. Those early innings matter less in determining the final outcome of the game, statistically speaking, and therefore carry the lowest leverage.
After the initial innings, once the score, lineups, and stakes have begun to reveal themselves—that’s when the ace arrives.
In the Twilight model, your top arms pitch 3 innings, twice per week. For example, if a typical week features a three-game series, one day off, and another three-game series, pitchers could appear on Monday and Friday, Tuesday and Saturday, or Wednesday and Sunday.
That gives us:
- 3 innings × 2 = 6 innings per week on average
- Over 26 weeks: 156 innings per season
So not only do they pitch fewer total innings per outing and over a full season, but they also pitch with higher impact.
The best pitchers now appear in twice as many games. They pitch in higher-leverage moments. And instead of six innings of strain concentrated in one appearance, they operate in controlled bursts—rested, prepared, and devastating.
The ace is no longer expected to navigate low-leverage innings and survive into the sixth or seventh. Instead, he enters in the third or fourth, once the lineup has revealed itself—and the moment demands precision.
Pitchers like Bibee are no longer simply pitching.
They are intervening.
The Sabermetric Shift
Let’s put numbers to what this change means in a simple example. How do sabermetrics like Runs Saved, Leverage Index, and Estimated Win Impact shift when pitchers throw fewer innings per week, but are deployed more strategically — impacting twice as many games, pitching in higher-leverage moments, and reducing repeated strain on their arms?
We’ve already seen that the Twilight League model reduces innings pitched from 198 to 156—a 21% drop. But how does this more strategic deployment affect the numbers that matter most: Runs Saved, Leverage Index, and ultimately, Win Impact?
1. Runs Saved
Runs Saved is based on ERA and uses the following equation:
Runs Saved = (League ERA – Pitcher ERA) ÷ 9 × Innings Pitched
So for example, if the league average ERA is 4.5 and our ace has an ERA of 2.5, then based on the traditional model we have:
Runs Saved = (4.5 – 2.5) ÷ 9 × 198 = 44 RS (Traditional Model)
With fewer innings pitched, Runs Saved also decreases, as expected:
Runs Saved = (4.5 – 2.5) ÷ 9 × 156 = 34.7 RS (Twilight Model)
2. Leverage Index
Not all innings have the same impact on the game. That’s what Leverage Index (LI) measures. It tells us how much the outcome of the game could swing based on what happens next.
At its core:
Leverage Index = how important a situation is by calculating how much the next play could shift a team’s chances of winning
· An LI of 1.0 means average leverage — a normal, middle-of-the-road inning.
· Greater than 1.0 means high-leverage — a tight game late, with everything hanging in the balance.
· Less than 1.0 means low-leverage — early innings, or blowouts, where the next pitch doesn’t change much.
Typical Leverage Index (LI) Values in MLB:
Starters throw most of their innings long before the real tension arrives. That’s why their average LI is under 1. But in the Twilight League, aces pitch in the third to sixth innings — once the game has taken shape. These are pivot innings, when the outcome begins to crystallize. And because they pitch twice as often, they’re inserted into more of these critical windows.
That’s why for this model, we’ll use:
- 0.9 LI for traditional starters
- 1.4 LI for Twilight-model pitchers
Not arbitrary. Not speculative. Just strategically smarter. Because if you want to win more games, it’s not just about how well you pitch. It’s about how much those pitches matter.
3. Estimated Win Impact
Let’s tie it all together.
We’ve seen how the Traditional Model prioritizes volume — asking pitchers to throw six innings once every five games. And we’ve shown how the Twilight Model cuts down innings while placing pitchers in higher-stake moments. But how do we measure the actual impact of those innings on a team’s ability to win?
The answer is Estimated Win Impact.
Estimated Win Impact is calculated by combining Runs Saved and Leverage Index:
Estimated Win Impact = Runs Saved × Leverage Index
We already know that for the traditional model we have a Runs Saved of 44 and a Leverage Index of 0.9. That gives us:
Estimated Win Impact = 44 × 0.9 = 39.6 (Traditional Model)
However, in the Twilight League we get an Estimated Win Impact of:
Estimated Win Impact = 34.7 × 1.4 = 48.6 (Twilight Model)
So despite throwing 42 fewer innings over a season, the Twilight League pitcher contributes more to winning — a 23% increase in Estimate Win Impact compared to the traditional model.
Why?
Because those innings are leveraged. In the Twilight League, aces don’t just pitch—they tilt the game. And in using the team’s aces when the moment calls, they give managers something they’ve never truly had before: true strategic control.
Beyond the Mound, Beyond Tradition
Imagine, if you will… a team unshackled from the past. A team no longer ruled by outdated rituals, but guided by modern-day reason. A team that doesn’t waste its best arms on innings of indifference, but sharpens them for the crucible of consequence.
This isn’t science fiction. This is a model backed by math. Proven by logic. And ready for trial.
In the old world, a pitcher was expected to endure. In the Twilight League… a pitcher is expected to impact. To alter the outcome. To intercept fate. To arrive not first — but when it matters most. And above all — to impact more games, while risking fewer arms.
You’ve just crossed over into a different kind of baseball.
Welcome to…
