Seven games to determine the best course
The Cleveland Guardians have climbed their way back to .500 with the trade deadline eight days away – what will they do? What should they do?
As the Guardians’ 10-game losing streak wound down, I wrote that it was time to focus on 2026 and beyond, and to probably realize that fixing their offense would require letting their best hitting prospects take their lumps in the majors now and in 2026. I still believe this is true. The Guardians have a -35 run differential, a team wRC+ of 86, and an expected won-loss record of 46-54. They can beat bad teams, and that means something. But, I still don’t think they are a legit World Series threat this year, even in a diminished AL, barring a miracle.
Don’t get me wrong, though. I have no issue with believing in a miracle. The Guardians have a pitching staff that is really hitting their stride and they have Jose Ramirez. Trying for a wildcard berth and letting the chips fall where they may will not make me upset in the slightest, though I don’t personally think it’s the optimal approach if the goal is to ultimately win a title. Playoff baseball > > > no playoff baseball in my book.
I believe the next seven games – vs. The Orioles, Royals and Rockies – will go a long way in determining the way the Guardians approach things. I expect almost all deals to come together for Cleveland on 7/31 after they see where the team’s record is after their game on 7/30. There are three ways I can essentially see it going and here’s a breakdown:
Path A – The Guardians go 7-0 or 6-1 in that time period and hold/add to the roster.
This isn’t at all LIKELY, but not impossible. In this case, the Guardians are 57-50 or 56-51. There is enough to hope on where the focus should be on adding to the roster instead of subtracting. At this point, maybe the Guardians go after a short-term right-fielder like the Angels’ Taylor Ward, the Rangers’ Adolis Garcia, or the Marlins’ Jesus Sanchez. Maybe they swing bigger for a longer term solution in the Cardinals’ Lars Nootbaar or the Pirates’ Bryan Reynolds (I am skeptical if Reynolds is a good idea, however). I think, if the plan is to GO for it with any kind of real intent, the team HAS to try to add an outfield bat who can hit in the middle of the order.
As for the current outfield options, Nolan Jones is somehow managing to be around a league average hitter since his horrific start, but with zero power. Angel Martinez is on an absolute tear in July, but still not exercising plate discipline. I think he CAN make the adjustment to find his way to some walks, but I don’t think it’s wise to bet on that as pitchers eventually make an adjustment to throw him only pitches he has to chase. Steven Kwan has been banged up, and so the outfield right now has put up a 79 wRC+ as a whole, with a .118 ISO. With Chase DeLauter’s status uncertain due to a hand injury, the team must add a legit power threat from the outfield if they want to give this squad a shot at making a run.
The team can also, of course, explore moving Carlos Santana, Jakob Junis and even other relievers should the right deal arise. But, on this path, they would not make any move that would notably impact the current roster’s ability to compete. They would, above all, hold steady with the current group.
I don’t think this is the wisest path. However, it IS the path that rewards José Ramírez and Shane Bieber for their loyalty and Guardians’ fans who are again producing an excellent year for attendance. So, I would wholeheartedly endorse it, despite my misgivings.
Path B – Thread the needle
If the Guardians go 5-2 or 4-3, it probably makes sense to unload veterans and pursue at least one more significant deal while not tearing the current roster down to the studs. Find a way to trade Carlos Santana, Jakob Junis and, yes, Shane Bieber.
I would look to trade Bieber because I believe there will be teams desperate enough for a potential front of the rotation arm to give something so good it’s silly in return for him, if Bieber has another great rehab start in him. If Bieber produces a great August-September in Cleveland, he would be silly not to pursue a large free agency deal. And the Guardians can get a comp pick if they offer him the qualifying offer, which is something. But, I truly believe there is enough desperation for the Guardians to get a legitimate middle-of-the-order-type prospect for Bieber. The rotation is performing well at the moment with arms like Parker Messick and Austin Peterson also holding their own in Columbus. You can trade Bieber without destroying team morale, I think.
I would also be exploring how desperate teams might be for relief help with arms like Erik Sabrowski or Hunter Gaddis. If someone is giving you a legit 50 FV prospect for that last bullpen piece they think they need, I’d move in that scenario.
Path C – the Guardians go 3-4 or worse in the days ahead.
In this case, aside from exploring the options in Path B, I would more seriously listen to offers for Emmanuel Clase and Steven Kwan. Between the two, my preference would be to trade Kwan, assuming he is showing no signs of agreeing to a reasonable team extension in talks so far.
The Guardians have to continue betting on their development group. They aren’t going to spend in free agency for a Kyle Tucker, as much as I wish they would. So, when you determine a team isn’t going to make a playoff run, it makes sense to capitalize on other teams’ desperation to fill a roster hole for a World Series run… either with a player who only has 2 years of control left (in Kwan) or one who as a reliever is a very volatile asset (in Clase). Personally, I would only move either if you are getting a major-league ready piece in return PLUS prospect(s) you really like. Is that deal going to materialize? Possibly not. But if your determination is that this season isn’t going to result in a pennant as even a remote probability, that’s where you more aggressively try to negotiate this kind of sweetheart deal.
It’s rare in a 162-game season to come across as momentous a week as the one the Guardians have in front of them. I am excited to see how it goes and hopeful we see either a thrilling playoff chase or some really intriguing trades as a result. Hey, potentially, we could see both, which would be best-case scenario.