We can’t celebrate all year long
Everyone loves Jhonkensy “Big Christmas” Noel. If you love him, you need to let him go (to Columbus).
I was just at a season-ticket holder event with my six year-old son. He is just starting to get into baseball, and is most excited still about seeing the mascots Ketchup and Mustard. But, he knows Jose Ramirez and is excited about him. AND he had his best encounter with a player of the day with Jhonkensy Noel. Amidst a season-long slump and at the end of 90 minutes of interacting with fans, Jhonk took time to laugh and joke with my son and ask him about himself without even a hint of world-weariness. So, I want to be clear – I love Jhonkensy Noel and I want nothing more than for him to be successful.
I wrote in the winter that Noel COULD be one of the few hitters who can be successful with the amount of chase and whiff he has in his game because he hits the ball hard AND he pulls fly-balls. Very sadly, his groundball rate has gone up by 20% and his fly-ball rate has gone down by 10%. He still continues to pull everything (60% of the time) but his launch angle has declined 7 degrees and he can’t find the barrel of the bat (14.5% barrel-rate in 2024 and 4.6% in 2025).
Noel still hits the ball HARD (90 mph average exit velocity and 40% hard-hit rate), but he is hitting everything into the ground which makes his 32% strikeout rate intolerable. He has also seen a 6.6% walk rate from last season decline to only 3% this season, and his 19.1% swinging-strike rate is insurmountable when he won’t take more obviously bad pitches.
Big Christmas still has the tools to survive as a big league player. His bat speed is in the 99th percentile. He’s worked hard to become a solid right fielder defensively. But, it’s just not working right now because he can’t consistently lift the few balls he does hit and he can’t lay off bad pitches enough to earn the balls he needs to lift.
If Lane Thomas was healthy, I am confident Noel would have been replaced by David Fry on Cleveland’s roster which would have allowed Noel to spend some time working on his swing and approach in Columbus. Despite his gargantuan size, Noel is still not even 24 years old – there is still time for him to grow and develop as a player. But, he doesn’t seem to be able to do it in a part-time role in the big leagues right now. I’m not sure if Cleveland is trying to preserve the extra option year they got on him, but it seems pretty clearly detrimental to his development to continue to hang him out to dry every time a left-handed starter takes the hill. Notably, manager Stephen Vogt no longer goes to Noel when lefty relievers enter the game; perhaps recognizing that left-handed hitters against southpaw bullpen guys are better matchups than Big Christmas against anyone right now, sadly.
Personally, I am not a believer in Johnathan Rodriguez, right fielder/DH in Columbus. Rodriguez provides many of the same problems Noel does (too much chase and whiff and too many groundballs) and is a much worse defender in right field. However, he does show the ability to take a walk and he has hit left-handed pitching well throughout his professional career. I think it’s time to give Johnny Rockets another look while demoting Noel and do some defensive replacements for him late in games to try to mitigate his ineptitude out there.
Of course, my preferred option would be to simply try CJ “How bad can he be in right field, really?” Kayfus or, best of all, Chase DeLauter who hit another couple balls over 100 mph last night. Both are lefties, sure, but both are also capable of taking a walk against a lefty whereas Noel seems only capable of frustration for him and for the team at this point. Let your best hitters take their best shots at fixing the right field problem and let Noel focus on finding his ideal swing motion again without the pressure of winning major league ballgames. Noel can return to the big leagues later this summer if he figures things out, bring us Big Christmas in July, or Big Christmas in August, or Big Christmas in Septembrrr. I haven’t given up on him at all.
It just doesn’t seem right to expect him to find it on the Guardians right now. Time to pause our Big Christmas celebrations, hang up the lights and deflate the inflatables for a minute. Give Santa time to get his present-giving form in shape.
Ok, I wrote it, Jhonk. Now I expect a two-homer off Max Fried performance tomorrow to make me look like an idiot (praying hands, praying hands, praying hands).