Top 21 Guardians’ Pitching Prospects

San Francisco Giants v Cleveland Guardians — Photo by Jeff Dean/Getty Images

Rankings, Rationale, and Pitch Grades

The Guardians’ pitching lab is infamously strong and with the current crop of pitching prospects, it looks as if it will only improve. The Guardians used the biggest draft bonus pool ever to amass tons of talented arms in the 2024 Draft, many of which will be on this list. The Guardians definitely have some common archetypes that the try to develop, so don’t be surprised when some of these pitchers sound just like the others.

As a public observer, rating pitching prospects is much harder than hitting prospects due to a relative lack of data. For that reason I have elected to rank our prospects against each other instead of trying to assign Future Values to them. As always with any prospect list, the gaps between these players are marginal and shouldn’t be considered as anything bigger than that.

This is part two of my Guardians’ prospect rankings, if you haven’t already go and read my hitters list!

As I explained in that previous list, my evaluations on players are mostly dependent on tools rather than MiLB performance. When it comes to pitchers, one thing that I weigh very highly is stuff quality.

Some things I will bring up a lot:

IVB: Vertical movement of a pitch independent of gravity. Average FB is ~15IVB
Release Height: Average ~5.9ft
Extension: Average ~6.5ft
VAA: Angle at which a pitch approaches the plate at

Injury Mentions:

Daniel Espino (shoulder surgery)

Aiden Major (elbow surgery)

The reason I put this category before the list is because both of these pitchers would be at or around the #1 spot if they fully recover from their current injuries.

#1: Braylon Doughty

The Guardians drafted Doughty 36th overall in 2024 and convinced him to forego a college career at Oklahoma State. Doughty is a low risk pitching prospect (compared to other high school arms) with a profile that the Guardians typically develop very well.

Doughty is a prototypical Guardians pitching prospect: Average velo, good command, and great feel for spin. Doughty has two plus breaking balls and I might even say that both have double-plus potential because of their lofty spin rates. The two biggest successes the Guardians have had with that profile is Shane Bieber and Tanner Bibee. Both of those pitchers came out of college while Doughty came straight from HS with very similar stuff and velocity grades as those two.

Doughty’s fastball sits in the lowers 90s but he has maxed out at 96mph. He gets behind the ball well which helps create a riding fastball profile that will play up in the zone. He also has an advantageous low release point with an optimal VAA. If the Guardians have success developing velocity — as they normally do — his fastball could certainly become his third plus pitch.

A fun detail about Doughty: He will occasionally use the tactics of Johnny Cueto and Nestor Cortes to try and mess with a hitter’s timing.

#2: Joey Cantillo

MLB: Spring Training-Cleveland Guardians at Chicago Cubs

Cantillo debuted in 2025 in an attempt to aid the Guardians’ ravaged starting rotation, and pitched to varying degrees of success. He was thrust directly into the fire with 3 out of his first 4 starts being against playoff teams, and the 4th against the division rival Twins. After the tough luck of his first four starts he finished the season extremely well, pitching to a 2.08 ERA in 21 innings. That stretch of games made Cantillo look special, he did everything right and even carried a perfect game into the 7th. Cantillo struck out 35% of batters he faced and only walked 7%, he also did not give up a single home run. Excelling with those aspects of pitching (the three true outcomes) will make Cantillo a great pitcher.

Unfortunately, we know that a good month isn’t enough to start believing that Cantillo is an ace, and there are some concerns for him. The biggest concern is the control, which he reigned in very well (compared to his baseline) in his time with Cleveland. We all remember the playoff outing where he spiked multiple pitches to allow runs, so I cannot confidently say the control is improved enough before we see more of him this year.

As for his pitch mix, Cantillo wields a 4 seam fastball, curve, slider, and change-up. Only the fastball is below average, while the other three grade out well. Cantillo also has trouble commanding the fastball, whereas his command for the other pitches is actually not bad. The curve is very enticing, with one of the steepest approaches of any pitch in baseball. The change-up is very interesting as it has a much higher IVB than an average change-up and is also much slower than average. That pitch is almost like a floater that batters have to respect, allowing Cantillo’s subpar fastball to be more effective.

Cantillo certainly has a chance at the Opening Day roster, either as a reliever or a starter. If Cantillo really did figure something out last September, and can emulate that success, he could be a real surprise to the league in 2025.

#3: Joey Oakie

Oakie is one of the exciting HS arms that the Guardians drafted in 2024 and in my opinion is the most interesting of them all. While I have Doughty ranked higher, Oakie has a really high potential with his athleticism and tool set.

Oakie has two plus pitches, a fastball and a slider. He can run up the fastball to mid 90s and the slider sits in the low 80s. Oakie releases the ball from ridiculously low and he pairs that with fantastic extension. The fastball has lots of horizontal run which leads me to believe that he will develop a strong sinker at some point during his development. The fastball’s shape being suboptimal is completely cancelled out by his release which creates a very good VAA. The slider has a strong two plane shape, creating a lot of contrast from the fastball

Oakie has a lot of similarity to Joe Ryan with his low release point and big slider. If there is any truth in that comparison then Oakie will be a very fun follow in the next few years.

#4: Andrew Walters

Championship Series - New York Yankees v. Cleveland Guardians - Game Three

Walters was drafted in the Competitive Balance Round (B) in 2023 as a pure reliever. Walters was absolutely dominant in college and continued that dominance in the minor leagues before a short period of struggle in AAA. He worked through the adversity and earned himself a call-up and a spot on the postseason roster.

Walters leans heavily on his fastball which grades out as double-plus. Walters leans on his fastball even more than Cade Smith. In 2025 I would love to see Walters adopt the approach that Smith has: letting the fastball eat in the zone. We can’t forget about his off-speed offerings though, a plus slider and a plus splitter.

Walters has the makings of a very effective reliever, and there is a pretty good chance that he slots into the back end of a stacked Guardians bullpen in 2025.

#5: Parker Messick

Messick was selected 54th overall in 2022 and has done nothing but perform in his 2 professional seasons. He split 2024 between A+ and AA, and he thrived in Akron with an ERA of 2.06 in 65 innings. Messick is a deceptive lefty with great control. In college, and his first professional season, he sat at about 90mph on the fastball, but he has been gradually adding velocity (as most Guardians prospects do). This spring, while he isn’t with the big league club, he has been pitching very well and averaging 92-93mph on the fastball.

Messick’s best pitch is his change-up, which he commands very well and tunnels with his fastball to great success. He throws from a low arm slot allowing him to attack the top of the zone with fastballs even though the shape isn’t anything special. Messick also throws a average-to-plus slider to round out his arsenal. Messick is very precise and has a very consistent release which makes his pitches even more deceptive.

Messick is a candidate to break the Guardians’ rotation mid/late season. There isn’t much upside in his profile, but he projects to be a very respectable 4/5 starter in the near future.

#6: Matt Wilkinson

Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson is a 270-pound monster on the mound that has been extremely impressive in his first professional season. There is almost nothing conventional about Tugboat, due to his size to his poor velocity, it is tough to describe why he was able to lead all of MiLB in strikeouts this past season.

The biggest factor of his success is his excellent command. He hits his spots very well and tunnels his pitches off each other to maximize the lack of raw power and movement. His fastball plays extremely well partly because of low release and ability to locate up in the zone. The IVB on his fastball is also above average, which is extremely uncommon from a release point as low as his.

I need to see how he performs in his second season before I can rank him any higher than this, but the results speak for themselves. Maybe his motion is deceptive enough to keep him effective as he rises up the minor leagues, but I am not ready to board the Tugboat just yet.

#7: Michael Kennedy

Kennedy is a 20 year old lefty that was acquired from the Pirates this past offseason. He was impressive at both low and high A last season as a 19 year old. Kennedy sits at about 90mph with the fastball and has plenty of time to add velocity.

Kennedy has plus extension and throws from a low arm slot, both of these factors make his fastball play up higher than its stuff grade. The slider and change-up are both average offerings that he can throw for strikes.

If Kennedy is the next in line for a Guardians’ lab velo boost, he will be a very interesting arm for this system as well as a fast riser through the minor leagues.

#8: Doug Nikhazy

Nikhazy was drafted 58th overall out of Ole Miss back in 2021. He was a stud in college but has taken a little longer to progress through the system than was expected. Nikhazy looked great in Spring Training prior to his most recent outing against the Dodgers (who were playing a normal lineup).

Nikhazy’s best weapon is his slider which has a fair amount of sweep. But Nikhazy throws from very far to the side — almost as far as Sean Manaea. That interesting look from the side allows all of his pitches to play up from what the pure stuff grades show.

Nikhazy’s other offerings are about average including a fastball with a good shape but not much velo. Nikhazy gets an above average amount of IVB on that pitch which is very unique given his low arm angle. Lastly, Nikhazy also has about 7 feet of extension on the mound which gives that fastball a little extra oomph that will hopefully cancel out the lack of velocity. The biggest risk with Nikhazy is command; he doesn’t command the ball particularly well but it isn’t a major issue. If the command can’t stick in the rotation, Nikhazy should be a very solid bullpen arm.

#9: Austin Peterson

6’6” Austin Peterson is a gentle giant on the mound. He does not possess high velocity, but he does pound the strike-zone, leading to a staggeringly low 3.5% walk rate in 2024. The 25 year old is on the older side given he has not yet pitched at AAA, but the skill set is real.

Peterson’s fastball grades about average with a quite good shape to it but poor velocity keeps it from being a plus pitch. He throws an average curve and a changeup that is nothing to write home about. His best weapon is a big sweeping slider that he throws in the low 80s. There is a potential issue with the slider though, his release point is much further to the side than his other three offerings. It’s important to note that “much further” is about 5 inches, but if players catch on then his plus slider is completely taken out of the equation.

Peterson will probably spend most of 2025 at AAA with an outside chance of debuting this season.

#10: Jackson Humphries

Jackson Humphries is a 20 year old SP with a really unique release. He releases the ball about as close to directly above his head as possible. The funky release has fooled hitters throughout his young professional career.

The high release allows him to get directly behind his fastball and produce an elite 20+IVB on the offering. He throws a plus gyro spinning slider as his main secondary, and a 12-6 style curve as a second breaking ball. His changeup is one of the most unique pitches I have ever seen. It gets ~20IVB just like the fastball, but has 8 more inches of glove side run and is almost 10mph slower than the fastball. The pitch grades out as below average, but I can’t imagine that hitters will be able to pick up this unicorn pitch.

Humphries’ release point and changeup set him apart from every current MLB pitcher. He is a ways away from MLB but I can’t wait to see how his stuff plays.

#11: Erik Sabrowski

Championship Series - New York Yankees v Cleveland Guardians - Game 4

Erik Sabrowski came out of nowhere and put on a show at the end of the 2024 season and the playoffs. The lefty reliever wields three pitches, fastball, curve, and slider. Though, the slider is really more of a cutter in shape and velocity. Sabrowski doesn’t pack much velocity, but his 6’4” frame allows him to extend around 7 feet down the mound. Sabrowski’s biggest concern is command, which he struggled with mightily in the minor leagues. Hopefully, now that he knows his stuff will play, he will keep pounding the zone like he did in his short MLB stint.

Sabrowski’s primary weapon is the fastball. It sits at only 92.6mph, but the IVB is not just elite — it ranks behind only one other fastball in the major leagues. The fastball is able to ride because of his 98th percentile fastball spin rate and 100% spin efficiency on the pitch. The breaking balls are both graded about average and separate from the fastball very well.

Sabrowski is unfortunately out with an injury currently. When he is healthy the big lefty may well become a big contributor to the bullpen in 2025.

#12: Aaron Davenport

Davenport is entering his age 24 season after a very impressive full year at AA with an ERA of 2.85. The 6-foot righty comes from the University of Hawai’i and was drafted 186th overall by the Guardians in 2021.

Davenport showed out in a brief appearance this spring and showed off a quality four pitch arsenal. He throws a “cut-ride” shape fastball at ~94 with two plus breaking balls that creep up to 3000rpm spin rates as well as a double-plus cutter at 87mph.

Davenport is relatively unknown in the prospect world but I really like his chances to make a name for himself in 2025. I’ll go on record and say he is one of the biggest breakout candidates in the entire system for 2025.

#13: Cameron Sullivan

Cameron Sullivan was one of the prep arms drafted by the Guardians in 2024, going in the 7th round. He is a projectable athlete on the mound that is sitting in the lower 90s with a decently well rounded 4 pitch mix.

His fastball is graded average but his sweeping slider and cutter are both plus pitches that has spin rates nearing the 3000s. A change-up, which is really more of a sinker, fills out his repertoire. The Guardians will need to develop his command, as you do with most prep arms. Cameron Sullivan will be one of many prospects from this most recent draft to keep a close eye on in the coming years.

#14: Chase Mobley

Chase Mobley is another prep arm selected by the Guardians in the 2024 draft, and is by far the most raw of the bunch. He was selected in the 295th overall, but he signed the 61st highest signing bonus because of his high potential.

Mobley can run it up to 99mph but mostly sits in the mid 90s with a heavy arm-side fastball. His release point is extremely close to the ground which creates a really uncomfortable look for hitters at that velocity. His breaking ball needs some work and the command is very spotty for both pitches.

Mobley is a raw talent that the Guardians are hoping to refine into a blue chip prospect.

#15: Josh Hartle

Josh Hartle was acquired during the flurry of trades including Andres Gimenez this past offseason, only a few months after being drafted by the pirates. Hartle went into his final season of college projected as a first round pick before he struggled mightily and dropped into the third round.

The cause for his struggles is an extremely poor fastball. Hartle does not get behind the pitch at all leading to a movement profile that resembles a poor cutter. Typically a pitcher who throws like this will begin to throw an intentional cutter as their primary pitch, like Corbin Burnes did in 2021.

I will be keeping an eye on Hartle to see if the Guardians try and fix the fastball, or convert him into a cutter-only type guy.

#16: Franco Aleman

Aleman dominated AAA last season as a reliever striking out over 35% of batters and only allowing an ERA of 1.99. Aleman, unfortunately, suffered an injury that is going to sideline him for the beginning of 2025, but once he is recovered he is most likely the next reliever up from Columbus.

Aleman leverages his 6’6” frame to get almost 7 feet of extension down the mound. The pitches are solid but nothing spectacular, and the extension creates a tough at-bat for batters.

It would be smart to keep close track of his recovery. With pitcher injuries on the rise there is a very strong chance that Aleman debuts in 2025.

#17: Will Dion

Dion dominated at Lake County and Akron in 2023, but ran into big home run trouble in Columbus last year. Entering his age 25 season Dion needs to make an adjustment this season to prevent the homerun ball if he wants a chance at succeeding in the majors.

So far this spring he has added about 2 ticks of velocity to all four of his offerings which has improved his stuff grades marginally. Dion throws his fastball about 50% of the time which makes it imperative that he maintains this velocity gain. In 2024 his fastball averaged 89.6mph, which the excellent shape will not cover up over a starter’s work load.

Dion is a rotation depth option right now, but the severe home run risk makes me picture him more as a reliever who can push the velocity a little more in short outings.

#18: Ryan Webb

Ryan Webb is a (soon to be) 26-year-old lefty starter with nothing too remarkable about his profile. He pitched very well with a 2.80 ERA in MiLB last season, including 7 starts with Columbus.

Webb’s fastball was up a few ticks this spring and also has an improved shape, taking the pitch from poor to about average. The change-up is his best weapon and it generated a chase% just below 50% in AAA last season.

Webb has a chance to be a very solid 4/5 starter, especially if the velo bump is real.

#19: Rafe Schlesinger

COLLEGE BASEBALL: MAR 02 Florida at Miami

Rafe Schlesinger is a long reliever with a chance to become a starting pitcher. He is a lefty with a sidearm release who sports a low 90s sinker as well as a sweeping slider. He projects to be a funky lefty, and could use a few more pitches to keep right handed hitters at bay better.

It will be interesting to see if the Guardians try him as a starter or put him back in the bullpen which he was in for all but this past season at Miami.

#20: Tommy Mace

Tommy Mace is 26 years old and has yet to crack AAA, but the profile is intriguing enough for him to land at the back end of this list. He hasn’t gotten much swing and miss in his professional career but the stuff is good, it’s only a matter of sequencing and location before the whiffs come.

He throws from a side-arm slot and sports a fastball with average IVB at ~94mph. He supports the fastball with 3 plus secondaries including a changeup with heavy arm-side run. Mace also gets above average extension which gives his velocity a bump.

Mace has to start proving himself soon, but his stuff is good enough to at least crack a big league bullpen in the future.

#21: Zach Jacobs

Zach Jacobs is a relief prospect that has been stretched out a little in his time in MiLB. He has a 5 pitch mix that should be deep enough for a starting pitcher, but he needs to develop a stronger primary option.

Jacobs has a great feel for spin and throws a plus slider and curve. He throws from a low release point, making his fastball is more of a sinker with its strong arm-side movement.

Jacobs has the arsenal to be a back end rotation option, but will have to start more in the minor leagues before I can consider him a SP prospect.

Thanks for reading!

That concludes my top Guardians’ Pitching Prospects list! I would love to hear where you agree, disagree, or have more to add on a player.