Trying to wrap my head around this
Ok, the shock has worn off a bit for me – let’s talk about what the Guardians should do after the Emmanuel Clase news.
I have written several trade deadline pieces, and I suppose this is the latest. Every week brings a new development adding to the potential paths the Guardians could take. With the news of Clase being out until at least August 31st (if not, till eternity beckons him home), it seems there are three likely paths for the Guardians to pursue at the moment:
Best Case Scenario
Plan: The Guardians turn out to have some kind of indication from what they know that Emmanuel Clase isn’t necessarily involved in illegal sports betting but was aware of what Ortiz did and didn’t tell anyone. They decide to revisit extension talks with more serious intent with Steven Kwan and Shane Bieber so there is no need to trade them. They have hope that by September, Clase will return, or at least, will have a brief suspension lifted for 2026, and can work on convincing the clubhouse that Clase, who was incredibly effective, wasn’t betraying his teammates with ill intent.
In the meantime, they embrace the opportunities they have for young players like CJ Kayfus, Petey Halpin, Parker Messick, Franco Aleman and Austin Peterson to get their first taste of the big leagues while giving themselves the SLIM chance to make a run at the third wildcard spot. They trade Jakob Junis for cash. They determine to actually use the resources needed in the offseason – whether in cash or prospects or both – to acquire at least one middle of the order hitter.
Problems: We live in the real world where “life is pain and anyone who tells you different is selling something” – Dread Pirate Roberts. As much as I want the Guardians to extend players who have proven their value as big leaguers, they typically do not. They trade those players before they hit free agency. So, as much as I think it makes sense to do what it takes to extend your somewhat injury prone, reliable outfielder (ahem, Michael Brantley 2.0) and your front of the rotation arm who has shown he can be very effective at reduced velocity, I don’t expect either front office or ownership to make that pivot. That’s not even to mention how unlikely it is that Clase or Luis Ortiz are some variation of innocent. The far more likely scenario is that both pitchers made a dumb decision and are going to pay severe consequences. Also, even if Clase or Ortiz are some variation of innocent, the Guardians are unlikely to know that with any degree of certainty at this point, and expecting a clubhouse that lost two important arms while they are fighting (are they??) for a playoff berth in a tough season to accept either player back without serious reservations is a tough ask.
And, finally, the team should spend more money. The team should be more willing to trade prospects. But, there is no reason to think they will change their modus operandi until they actually SHOW us that is something they want to do. So, I’m not going to plan on that happening.
Embrace the Rebuild
Plan: Recognize that you have potentially (probably?) just lost two very valuable commodities – a promising starting pitcher and the most dominant closer this franchise has ever seen – for absolutely nothing, possibly for good, while your hitters are putting up a team wRC+ of 88. If you have strong offers for Steven Kwan and Shane Bieber, it’s time to pull the trigger on those moves. It’s time to trade or DFA Carlos Santana and clear a spot for CJ Kayfus. It’s time to move Jakob Junis and see if there is any kind of notable market for one of your other actually good relief arms, whether it is Erik Sabrowski, Nic Enright, Cade Smith or Hunter Gaddis. It’s time to DFA Nolan Jones and Matt Festa because they are not good. You should use this season to see how high of a draft pick you can get in 2026 and embrace that 2026 will be all about development for 2027. Hope and pray that Jose Ramirez will still be at least a 3-4 win player at that point so you can try to make one more run.
Problems: There is no guarantee there are good offers available right now for Kwan and Bieber, offers that would either surpass what you may get for Kwan in an offseason trade or the Comp-A pick you might get for a qualifying offer to Bieber, should he decline his option. If you embrace this plan, you run the risk of absolutely tanking second-half attendance – which has been very strong so far. You also absolutely demolish any remaining morale in that already beleaguered clubhouse… and can you ever fully recover from that? Also, the team is struggling to correctly evaluate and develop hitters – are we sure that hitters acquired in trades are going to have a reasonable chance of panning out here with the current decision-makers identifying and acquiring them?
Finally, the one thing as a fan right now that I’m holding on to (aside from personal loyalty, of course) is that my kids 6 years-old, 5 years-old and 2 years-old can recognize Jose Ramirez on sight and love him like I do. I want Jose to finish his career here and make the Hall of Fame as the first Cleveland Guardian to do so. I want that more than I want anything but a World Series title. If there is a chance that a full rebuild like this makes Jose want out… I, personally, would not do it. But, if Jose is locked in and ready to ride out the storm, I do think this is probably the best path at this point, if the team has no indication that Ortiz or Clase won’t be getting a lengthy suspension/lifetime ban. Losing out on the potential assets Clase could get you/his value on the team is a real killer.
Hold Down the Fort Until October
Plan: You hold with the team as is, making sensible promotions when possible to get players who can help in 2026 some major league playing time. Maybe Bieber will pick up his option here or accept the qualifying offer, or maybe you get that Comp-A pick after you extend him the qualifying offer. Maybe Kwan is more receptive to extension talks after an injury-plagued 2025. You still have the bones of a solid team IF you can develop Travis Bazzana and get Chase DeLauter and Juan Brito healthy to go along with some young hitters currently trying to iron things out. You trade Jakob Junis for cash.
Problems: You miss out on any extra value in trades that may be available from teams like the Padres, Phillies or Blue Jays trying to make sure they secure their best chance at winning a World Series. You limit opportunities for prospects whom you will need to help in 2026 and beyond by not unloading every vet you can as well as players who are very likely just not good. You don’t help players or fans feel any differently about this Titanic of a season hurtling toward the next iceberg.
Typing all this out hasn’t necessarily convinced me that any of these paths is the right one. It’s probably a combination of the second and third scenarios, in that, if Bieber looks solid tonight, you probably trade him and mostly hold everywhere else (except trading Jakob Junis for cash). We have had SO much bad news this season as Guardians’ fans, though, seems like we are due for something fun/exciting here at some point. We can only hope.